CASE STUDY - THE BALL

Let's start with something simple in order to demonstrate the mechanism of the Scientific Method. In my hand I am holding an object. I don't know what it is, but I'm going to try to demonstrate that it exists.

Hypothesis: I theorize that this object might exist

Our hypothesis appears to be acceptable in that it doesn't make any unsupported assumptions that do not extend from what is currently supported by the Scientific Method. So now that we have a qualifying hypothesis, we need to accumulate evidence to determine the validity of it.

Color Table:

Strong counter-evidence Weak counter-evidence Not useful Weak evidence Good evidence Strong evidence Not applicable

First-hand Evidence

Type of Evidence Our instincts consider this to be.. The Scientific Method considers this to be..

Tangibility
The object appears spherical, red, about the size of my head, light to the touch, smooth surface, has no taste or odor, somewhat compressible with my hands but springs back to original shape instantly, bounces, makes no noise other than when impacted. ..unquestionable evidence that this object exists. ..extremely compelling evidence. It's very hard to imagine how this object might 'not' exist given the strength and diversity of the tangible evidence that suggests it does. Still, this might all be a very lucid dream..

Influence
I have bounced it around and knocked a few things over with it. I've also placed it under heavy objects and the object supported their weight until they fell over. It doesn't seem to cause injury when thrown at people (though it does create aggravation in the test subjects). Seems insistent on occupying whatever space it currently has. ..unquestionable evidence that this object exists. Even if we don't know what it is, it's pretty obvious that it can interact with its environment and so it definitely is real. ..compelling evidence. Very difficult to explain these observed interactions if the object didn't exist.

Interpretation
It seems to be a child's red ball. ..the obvious answer (duh). ..a fairly good guess since a great deal of information is available about it, and the data seems to match the specifics for a ball. If this is the case, then the object probably exists.

Intuition
My gut feeling is that the object exists and that it is a ball. ..the obvious answer. ..of little value. It may be that this object exists, but our 'gut feelings' do nothing to support that theory.

Desire
I really don't care if this object exists or not. ..not applicable since no emotions are involved. ..not applicable since no emotions are involved.

Second-Hand Information Credibility

Type of Information Our instincts consider this to be.. The Scientific Method considers this to be..

Distinguished Source
I had the object examined at the local university and they insist that the object exists, and that it is indeed a ball. ..unquestionable support that it exists. ..strong support that it exists.

Agenda Source
No source has anything to gain from whether I believe this object exists or not. ..not applicable. ..not applicable.

Mass Support
Virtually every single person I have asked has resoundingly confirmed they believe it exists, and that it is a ball. ..extremely reliable. ..not reliable.

Hearsay, Rumor, or Opinion
The neighbor's kid insists that it does indeed exist because it is her ball. ..very reliable. ..not reliable.

First-hand Evidence
Type of Evidence	Our instincts consider this to be..	The Scientific Method considers this to be..
Tangibility The object appears spherical, red, about the size of my head, light to the touch, smooth surface, has no taste or odor, somewhat compressible with my hands but springs back to original shape instantly, bounces, makes no noise other than when impacted.	..unquestionable evidence that this object exists.	..extremely compelling evidence. It's very hard to imagine how this object might 'not' exist given the strength and diversity of the tangible evidence that suggests it does. Still, this might all be a very lucid dream..
Influence I have bounced it around and knocked a few things over with it. I've also placed it under heavy objects and the object supported their weight until they fell over. It doesn't seem to cause injury when thrown at people (though it does create aggravation in the test subjects). Seems insistent on occupying whatever space it currently has.	..unquestionable evidence that this object exists. Even if we don't know what it is, it's pretty obvious that it can interact with its environment and so it definitely is real.	..compelling evidence. Very difficult to explain these observed interactions if the object didn't exist.
Interpretation It seems to be a child's red ball.	..the obvious answer (duh).	..a fairly good guess since a great deal of information is available about it, and the data seems to match the specifics for a ball. If this is the case, then the object probably exists.
Intuition My gut feeling is that the object exists and that it is a ball.	..the obvious answer.	..of little value. It may be that this object exists, but our 'gut feelings' do nothing to support that theory.
Desire I really don't care if this object exists or not.	..not applicable since no emotions are involved.	..not applicable since no emotions are involved.

Second-Hand Information Credibility
Type of Information	Our instincts consider this to be..	The Scientific Method considers this to be..
Distinguished Source I had the object examined at the local university and they insist that the object exists, and that it is indeed a ball.	..unquestionable support that it exists.	..strong support that it exists.
Agenda Source No source has anything to gain from whether I believe this object exists or not.	..not applicable.	..not applicable.
Mass Support Virtually every single person I have asked has resoundingly confirmed they believe it exists, and that it is a ball.	..extremely reliable.	..not reliable.
Hearsay, Rumor, or Opinion The neighbor's kid insists that it does indeed exist because it is her ball.	..very reliable.	..not reliable.

Looking at the results, we see that our instincts are green almost across the board, absolutely beyond a doubt convinced that this object exists, with no room for error whatsoever. But if we look at the results for the Scientific Method, the first thing we realize is that none of the evidence is strong enough to be absolutely 100% certain this object exists. This is the difference between the instincts and the Scientific Method, there will 'always' be room for error. The Scientific Method will allow strong evidence (such as tangibility or distinguished sources) to push the 'probability' that the object exists to extremely high values (e.g. 99.99999999999% likely), but it can never get to 100%. It may seem silly to us on a human level because it is quite obvious to our instincts (specifically our common sense), that the object exists, but this exercise was to demonstrate that the Scientific Method will not bend its rules no matter how much the instincts would have us try to push it.

Instinctual Conclusion

Hello...it's a ball!...

Scientific Method Conclusion

Very powerful evidence to support that the object exists.